Severe restrictions on Rhine barge movements disrupted gasoil deliveries to Germany and Switzerland during October 2026, according to Alkagesta’s market commentary published on 21 October. The company reported volatile European prices and tight physical availability across Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, despite refiners increasing middle distillate yields. Its assessment identified inland transport constraints and depleted stocks as key supports for physical gasoil differentials against front-month ICE Low Sulfur Gasoil futures.
Alkagesta reported water-level readings at Germany’s Kaub chokepoint of just 1–2 cm on 6 and 8 October. Levels subsequently fluctuated, reaching 20 cm on 13 October before falling again and recovering to about 18 cm on 20 October. The company said these conditions sharply reduced barge loading capacity, interrupting normal inland deliveries. Restricted transport temporarily increased inventories at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp terminals while limiting replenishment of storage facilities serving inland consumers.
ARA gasoil stocks increased by 180,000 tonnes to 1.816 million tonnes in the week ending 1 October, before standing at 1.664 million tonnes in mid-month, the commentary said. Those mid-October holdings were 21% below the corresponding 2025 level. Alkagesta also reported that high outright prices discouraged consumers from stocking heating oil ahead of winter. Buyers instead sought immediate requirements, while barge differentials for 50 ppm gasoil moved from a $26.75/tonne discount to front-month ICE futures early in October to a $10.75/tonne premium around mid-month.
The company said low European inventory cover and middle distillate shortages east of Suez drew US Gulf Coast gasoil cargoes towards Northwest European and Mediterranean ports. Looking ahead, it expected secondary refinery maintenance, delayed household heating oil purchases and continued Rhine restrictions to sustain supply pressure. Without sustained rainfall, inland distributors would remain dependent on more expensive rail and pipeline alternatives, it forecast. The commentary represents Alkagesta’s own market assessment, drawing on internal analysis and public information; the company cautioned that its projections could differ materially from actual outcomes.