US agricultural retailers face difficult fertiliser stocking decisions ahead of autumn 2026 and spring 2027, with high nutrient prices increasing their exposure to losses while transport disruptions threaten availability, CropLife Fertilizer reports. Industry executives urged early procurement and more flexible logistics, rather than relying on supply conditions to return to normal.
George Secor, president and chief executive of Sunrise Cooperative in Fremont, Ohio, told the outlet that some retailers had bought expensive nitrogen in anticipation of spring demand that failed to materialise, forcing them to sell at a loss. With phosphorus retail prices above $1,000 per ton and elemental sulphur also costly, he said some businesses were unwilling to accept the financial risk of holding stocks, despite customers’ expectations that product would be available.
Rail consolidation adds another concern. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern agreed on 29 July 2025 to merge, proposing a network covering 50,000 route miles across 43 states and connecting more than 100 ports. CropLife cited The Fertilizer Institute as saying that rail carries more than 60% of US fertiliser movements throughout the year. Agricultural Retailers Association president and chief executive Daren Coppock warned that reduced competition among carriers could push up costs over time.
The railroads submitted additional customer safeguards to the Surface Transportation Board over the summer. These included wider eligibility for Committed Gateway Pricing, extending coverage to bulk unit train shippers, and commitments to retain Class I carrier options where legally possible. They also proposed temporary access to alternative rail services if integration weakened performance, alongside a rate-relief mechanism if promised public benefits were delayed.
International shipping and domestic waterways have compounded the pressure. CropLife reported that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut to shipping after the Iranian conflict began in spring. GROWMARK crop nutrients sales manager Mark Dietsch said nearly half of global urea exports and around 30% of ammonia exports pass through the region annually. He also described US river transport delays caused by high water in spring 2026, following low-water difficulties in previous years.
AgriPartners chief executive Rory Olerud characterised the spring disruptions as evidence of unresolved weaknesses in fertiliser supply chains. He urged retailers to use autumn 2026 to secure supplies early, invest in storage, diversify transport arrangements and communicate with growers, warning that delayed purchasing could leave them exposed to scarce spot-market supplies ahead of spring 2027.