Rhine navigation restrictions are disrupting inland European fuel oil distribution while freight costs constrain shipments to Asia, according to an Alkagesta press release presenting its market assessment dated 5 October 2026. The company describes a split between rising coastal inventories in Europe and tighter inland availability, alongside reduced supplies of finished marine fuel in Singapore. The assessment represents Alkagesta’s views rather than an independently verified market account.
Alkagesta reports that drought-related restrictions on the Upper Rhine have prompted Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe to cut barge loadings by up to a third. It puts Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp fuel oil stocks at 961,000 tonnes as of 1 October, an increase of 18.5% week on week. According to the company, restrictions on barge draught are obstructing deliveries to German and Swiss inland depots, leaving products concentrated at coastal storage hubs as winter demand approaches.
In Singapore, Alkagesta expects October arrivals of low-sulphur marine fuel from Western hubs to decline to 1.5 million–1.6 million tonnes, against 1.6 million–1.8 million tonnes in September. It attributes the reduction to elevated dirty tanker freight rates and insufficient price differences between the regions to support prompt shipments. The company also reports that Singapore’s onshore heavy distillate inventories fell 5.3% to 18.70 million barrels in the week ended 30 September.
The assessment puts Singapore’s delivered 0.5% sulphur bunker premium at $70.33/tonne above cargo values, up 24.3% week on week, citing limited prompt availability. It also identifies Persian Gulf transit difficulties and South Asian power-sector demand as support for high-sulphur fuel oil. Alkagesta says utility buyers in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are using fuel oil to replace disrupted LNG imports.
Looking ahead, the company expects Singapore’s low-sulphur marine fuel availability to remain constrained through the first half of October, with component inflows recovering later in the month. Its accompanying disclaimer states that the analysis combines internal assessments with publicly available information and that actual outcomes may differ from its forecasts.