BHP is seeking Brazilian customers for potash from its $15.3 billion Jansen project in Saskatchewan, although initial shipments are unlikely to arrive at Brazilian ports before 2028. Fertilizer Daily Markets, citing an October 8 report by AgFeed, said the company had not yet signed supply contracts. Its commercial team has been discussing potential sales with Brazilian buyers since last year.
Brazil consumes roughly 13.5 million tonnes of potash annually and relies on imports for 96% of its requirements, according to the report. The country's sole operating domestic potash mine, managed by Stratos, produces around 500,000 tonnes. BHP plans to serve this market through importers and major fertilizer companies, rather than selling directly to farmers.
Development at Jansen is proceeding in two stages. BHP figures reported by AgFeed put Stage 1 at 84% complete, with production scheduled to begin in mid-2027 at around 3.5 million tonnes. That phase carries a cost of $8.4 billion. The production timetable precedes the expected arrival of the first Brazilian cargoes, which the report places no earlier than 2028.
Stage 2 was reported to be 16% complete, with initial output anticipated by the end of 2031. BHP is targeting full annual capacity of 8.5 million tonnes by 2035. According to the figures cited in the report, that volume would represent approximately 10% of the global potash market.
Canada already accounts for at least half of Brazil's potash supplies, Agroconsult consultant Cleber Vieira told AgFeed. He put landed muriate of potash prices near $400 a tonne, compared with about $300 a tonne a year earlier, and said Brazilian demand could reach 16 million tonnes within three years. Vieira suggested additional Jansen supply could restrain prices, while cautioning that geopolitical factors made the outlook difficult to predict.